# Why Rent Jumps in Year Two After a Move-In Special > Renewals price from base rent, not the special. At the median special, year two jumps about 20%. See the formula and how to plan for it. URL: https://newapartmentsdallas.com/guides/year-two-rent-jump-after-special/ Last-Modified: 2026-10-26 Tags: apartment rent increase after concession, rent increase after move in special, renewal rent jump, year two apartment rent Guide · Specials # The Year-Two Jump: Why Rent Rises After a Move-In Special Renewals price from base rent, not the special. At the median special, year two jumps about 20%. See the formula and how to plan for it. By New Dallas Apartment Team [/about/#new-dallas-apartment-team →](/about/#new-dallas-apartment-team) Updated October 26, 2026 5 min read - Free to you, and your rent is the same either way - 120 new communities tracked - Prices pulled every morning ![Calendar page turning to month thirteen on a new apartment fridge](/images/featured/calendar-page-turning-to-month-thirteen-on-a-new-a.webp) - Licensed brokerage Spirit Real Estate Group, TREC #562021 - Every price dated Every price dated and sourced - Commission-blind Commission never touches our score or sort - Corrections logged Corrections logged within one business day ## Why does rent jump in year two? We see this catch renters by surprise constantly as a professional service team reviewing leases. Your year two apartment rent jumps because property managers calculate renewals using the higher base rent instead of the discounted rate. The temporary concession drops off, leaving you to face a severe apartment rent increase after concession. Our advice is to look closely when you compare apartment specials [/apartment-specials/ →](/apartment-specials/) , because those initial savings vanish at renewal due to two main factors: - RealPage data from late 2026 shows average apartment concessions hit 11.1%, equaling about six weeks free on a typical lease. - At the board median special on October 25, 2026, the average resulting renewal rent jump was about 20%. ![Step chart showing rent jumping from net effective to base at renewal](/images/content/simple-step-chart-showing-rent-jumping-from-net-ef.webp) ## How do you calculate year two? We use a straightforward equation to model this for every property. You calculate a year two apartment rent by multiplying your base rent by the expected renewal increase percentage, then adding your monthly fees. This formula reveals exactly how much your monthly payment will inflate. **Year two = base × (1 + change) + fees** Our models display the math at a 0% change and a +3% change, because renewal offers always vary. Property management software automates this math using the gross rent number, completely ignoring your initial free weeks. Yardi Matrix data from September 2026 shows national average asking rents grew by a modest 0.7%, but landlords frequently aim for higher increases. | Example | Year one monthly | Year two (0%) | Jump | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | $1,500 base, 8 weeks free, $141.50 fees | $1,410.73 | $1,641.50 | +$230.77 | | The Flynn at Live Oak, 8 weeks free, $122.56 fees | $1,285.18 | $1,496.56 | +$211.38 (16%) | We source this illustration from values active as of October 25, 2026, while the live page uses a real-time feed. At a +3% increase, the first example’s year two rises to $1,686.50. This causes a significant $275.77 monthly jump. > **The renewal doesn’t remember your special** > > Your year-one rent was base minus a discount. The renewal offer starts from base. A deeper special means a bigger step up. ## Why do deep specials make bigger jumps? We constantly remind clients that the base rent dictates all future costs. Deep specials create bigger jumps because they artificially lower your first-year average much further below the actual base price. The larger the initial discount, the steeper the climb back to full price at renewal. Our team often sees brand-new Class A properties offering two or even three months free to hit their occupancy targets quickly. A massive influx of new apartment supply in 2026 forced buildings to aggressively compete for tenants. Zillow data showed nearly 40% of all rental listings offering some form of concession by late 2026. We can see this impact clearly on a standard $1,500 base rent in the breakdown below. The building and the base price stay exactly the same. The only difference is the size of the special. - 4 weeks free on 12 months: net effective $1,384.62, jump to base $115.38 - 8 weeks free on 12 months: net effective $1,269.23, jump to base $230.77 - 12 weeks free on 12 months: net effective $1,153.85, jump to base $346.15 ![Renewal offer letter on a kitchen counter](/images/content/renewal-offer-letter-on-a-new-apartment-kitchen-co.webp) ## How should you plan for it? We recommend planning for a year-two jump by evaluating your total costs across a 24-month horizon rather than just looking at the initial discounted term. Proper forecasting prevents sticker shock down the road. Strategic renters secure the best deals by planning ahead for a rent increase after move in special. ### Pick by 24-month cost if you’ll stay Our 24-month comparison guide [/guides/compare-new-apartments-24-months/ →](/guides/compare-new-apartments-24-months/) outlines exactly how to run these specific calculations. If you plan to stay two years, compare the total 24-month cost instead of getting distracted by the year-one net effective rent. A lower base rent combined with a smaller special almost always wins in the long run. We find that most tenants overlook this simple math during their search. Six weeks free on a $1,350 base costs about $2,700 less over 24 months than eight weeks on a $1,500 base. Letting a massive discount blind you to a high base rate remains a costly mistake. ### Budget for year two from day one We advise clients to check that year two fits their all-in budget right from the start. Financial stress hits hard when the renewal notice arrives and the new price exceeds your comfort zone. If the year-two rate stretches your finances too thin, you are looking at a one-year building. ### Run a renewal check at month 10 Our month-10 renewal check guide [/guides/month-10-renewal-check/ →](/guides/month-10-renewal-check/) walks through the exact steps to handle this situation. Around month 10, compare your upcoming renewal offer to current specials at nearby properties. If new competing buildings are still offering weeks free, you have a solid reason to ask for a matched concession. We always suggest using that market data to negotiate or as a concrete reason to move. Property managers would rather offer a small concession than pay the turnover costs to replace you. Knowing the neighborhood averages gives you a distinct advantage at the bargaining table. ## Can you avoid the jump entirely? We tell renters that you cannot avoid the jump entirely, but you can certainly shrink it. A longer first lease, such as 15 or 18 months, spreads the special across more days and delays the renewal date. A prorated special does not change the mathematical jump, because the renewal still calculates as base minus a discount. We consistently find that the most reliable lever is simply starting with a lower base rent from day one. Negotiating the base price down yields permanent savings that carry over into every future lease term. Focusing on the base figure protects your budget much better than chasing temporary free rent. ## What’s the next step? Our team tracks this data constantly, and every card on the New Build Board [/new-construction-apartments/ →](/new-construction-apartments/) shows your expected year two apartment rent. You can easily review exactly what happens when the specials expire. Want us to compare your top buildings over 24 months? Here is how to proceed: - We are ready to help you map out the financials. - You just need to reach out to our analysts. Get my shortlist [/contact/ →](/contact/) today to start planning. ## Where it usually goes wrong 1 ### Weeks free on a long term Eight weeks free on a 12-month lease is not the same deal as eight weeks free on 18 months. The term changes the monthly number. 2 ### Up to, on select units The headline special often applies to a few floor plans. The unit you want may carry a smaller one, or none. 3 ### The renewal jump Renewals price from base. At the board median special, year two jumped about 20% on Oct 25, 2026. **So we decode every special into net effective and year two, confirm it applies to your unit, and get the concession addendum in writing.** ## Questions renters ask ### Why does rent go up so much at renewal? The special ends and the renewal starts from base rent. If you were paying net effective in year one, the jump to base can be large. ### Can I get a special on renewal? Sometimes, if nearby buildings are offering one. Ask around month 10, with current comps in hand. ### How big is the typical year-two jump? At the board median special on Oct 25, 2026, about 20%. ### Can you guarantee a price or approval? No. The community sets both, and we confirm them before you sign. ## Related guides Explainer How to Renew a New-Build Lease: The Month-10 Renewal Check Renew with current comps in hand: compare your renewal offer to nearby specials at month 10, ask for a matched concession, or move. Read the guide [/guides/month-10-renewal-check/ →](/guides/month-10-renewal-check/) Decision guide 12 vs 15 Months: Which Lease Term Gets the Better Special How lease term length changes net effective rent and renewal timing, why some specials need 16 to 17 months, and unstated minimum terms. Read the guide [/guides/12-vs-15-month-lease-special/ →](/guides/12-vs-15-month-lease-special/) Learn more about Apartment Specials Current specials with the term, end date, net effective and year-two price shown side by side. Go to Specials [/apartment-specials/ →](/apartment-specials/) ## Where to look next Apartment Specials Current specials with the term, end date, net effective and year-two price shown side by side. Open [/apartment-specials/ →](/apartment-specials/) Lease-Up Apartments Buildings in lease-up, filtered by stage, with deal depth and build-complete status. Open [/lease-up-apartments/ →](/lease-up-apartments/) New Construction Apartments Map and cards for every ground-up building, with the real monthly price and the date we checked it. Open [/new-construction-apartments/ →](/new-construction-apartments/) ## Want us to run this on real buildings? Text your move date, budget, and where you work. You'll get buildings decoded and tolls priced within hours. - We confirm the unit, the special and a written fee sheet - We check the electric provider at the address - We price the toll route to your job ### Thanks, we have your request. We make the calls and send your shortlist the same day during hours. We couldn't send that. Try again, or email us at hello@newapartmentsdallas.com. ## Tell us your move date. We make the calls. Text your move date, budget, and where you work. You'll get buildings decoded and tolls priced within hours. Get my shortlist [/contact/ →](/contact/) See the New Build Board → [/new-construction-apartments/ →](/new-construction-apartments/) Free. Your rent is the same either way. Same day during hours. We don't guarantee pricing or approval. The community sets both, and we confirm them before you sign.